According to a recent analysis by SILIKN's research unit, the implementation of economic policies such as tariffs and sanctions is not only reshaping global trade, but also fueling a rising tide of malicious cyber activity. These measures, far from being mere financial instruments, escalate geopolitical tensions and create the perfect environment for state actors and cybercriminal groups to exploit vulnerabilities in governments, businesses and strategic organizations.
Cyberattacks, in many cases, do not start with lines of malicious code or clandestine hacker networks. Sometimes, it all starts with a political decision. The recent increase in tariffs by the United States on key products from the Mexican industrial sector has been one such decision. As supply chains readjust, new digital flanks open up.
Tariffs, economy and cyber-attacks: a perfect storm for Mexico
In April 2025, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, decided to raise the tone of the trade war and announced new tariffs on products imported from several countries. Among the most affected are Mexico and Canada, to whom he imposed a 25% tax on goods such as steel, aluminum and automobiles that do not comply with the rules of the T-MEC (the trade agreement between the three North American countries). Products that do comply with the agreement, fortunately, were left out of this measure.
In addition, a general tariff of 10% was applied on almost all imports to the U.S., although Mexico and Canada were excluded from that part. Then, on April 9, Trump announced a 90-day temporary suspension of some tariffs, in the name of “reciprocity.” The bad news? That pause did not apply to Mexican products, setting off alarm bells on both sides of the border.
The numbers do not look good: it is estimated that these decisions could cause Mexican exports to fall by up to 12%, GDP to contract by up to 3% if there is retaliation, and jobs to be lost in both Mexico and the U.S. In addition, food and electronics prices could rise, and even reduce the flow of remittances to Mexico. In response, the Mexican government is trying to negotiate a reduction in tariffs, proposing, for example, that the steel tax be lowered to 12.5%.
But this is not just an economic and trade story. There are side effects that are not always visible to the naked eye. One of them: the increase in cyber-attacks. Mexico, being so exposed by the 25% tariffs on key products such as steel and autos, has become an easier target for cyber attacks. State actors and criminal groups could be taking advantage of the moment of uncertainty to launch ransomware attacks, phishing campaigns or try to steal information from vulnerable companies.
Sectors such as manufacturing and technology, which were already dealing with logistical problems and financial pressure, now face an even greater risk: data leaks, disruptions in their operations and increasing exposure to digital threats. All this is taking place in a more tense international context, where tariffs and sanctions not only disrupt trade, but also digital security. Mexico, because of its close relationship with the United States, is right in the middle of this new battlefield.
Read more: Cybercrime in the U.S.: A Record $16 Billion Lost in 2024
Mexico in the crosshairs: Collateral effects of a digital trade war
Another important (and often overlooked) point is the increase in cyber-attacks launched by APT groups (those well-organized hacker groups, often backed by governments) from China against manufacturers in the United States. All of this is occurring in the context of trade tensions. Although Mexico is not under direct attack, that does not mean it is out of the woods. As a key U.S. partner in the T-MEC and an essential part of its production chains, especially in sectors such as automotive and electronics, any blow to U.S. industry could end up affecting its suppliers in Mexico.
If a U.S. company is forced to stop because of a cyber attack, guess what? Its partners in Mexico can also be put out of business, without orders, or worse, become the next target. APT groups look for weak spots, and many times transnational companies with operations in both countries become an attractive target.
All this has a lot to do with the economic measures that the United States has been applying. Each new tariff or sanction generates instability and opens the door to more cyberattacks, especially in industrial and manufacturing sectors. As companies struggle to adjust to market changes, they also have to worry about protecting themselves digitally. And that pressure is no small matter.
In Mexico, the picture is further complicated by the dependence of its economy on trade with the United States - more than 80% of its exports go there. If Mexican products become more expensive due to tariffs, they lose competitiveness. And if they face more cyber threats on top of that, the situation could put entire industries in check. We are talking about possible factory shutdowns, loss of key technology, a drop in exports (estimated at up to 12%), effects on GDP (up to 3%) and, of course, more pressure on employment.
It is no coincidence that after the sanctions against countries such as China, Russia or Iran, there has been a wave of cyber-attacks. These actors not only respond with statements: they respond with malicious code. Thus, the economic conflict also moves to the digital plane, and in the midst of all this, Mexico (because of its proximity and dependence on the U.S.) is in the line of fire.
When politics hits cyberspace
In recent months, a spike in phishing campaigns targeting companies in the United States has been noted just after tariffs on Chinese goods were reinstated. And this is not an isolated case. It has also seen ransomware attacks, many linked to groups connected to the Russian government, increase in response to international sanctions, affecting critical infrastructure in several countries.
This is no coincidence. Governments such as those of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea have stepped up their cyberspace operations when under economic pressure. These campaigns are not just about annoying: they have clear and strategic objectives such as stealing intellectual property, disrupting essential services or gathering information that can give them an advantage in the geopolitical game.
A good example is the increase in attacks by Chinese APT groups against U.S. manufacturers, especially after the tightening of trade policies. These attacks seek to weaken companies from the inside, leaking sensitive information or crippling their operations with surgical precision.
But it's not all in the hands of government-backed actors. Criminal groups are also capitalizing on this climate of economic instability. Ransomware attacks and financial fraud have grown, targeting with particular interest companies that are already under pressure from logistical problems or impacts from sanctions and tariffs. The worrying thing is that these groups are becoming more organized, more creative and more targeted in their choice of victims.
In this fast-changing scenario, companies need to stay ahead of the problem. An antivirus or a strong password is not enough. Especially in sectors such as manufacturing, energy and technology, it is critical to strengthen the ability to detect threats, invest in stronger defenses and analyze risks with a view that includes the international context.
The connection between economic policy and cybersecurity is not new, but it is gaining increasing weight. As governments use tariffs and sanctions as pressure tools, malicious activity in the digital world is likely to continue to grow. And that presents a huge challenge for businesses and public institutions alike.
